A temperature-driven modelling framework for mosquito seasonal phenology and generational dynamics in temperate urban environments of the Balkan region
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Date
2026-04-10
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Plovdiv University "Paisii Hilendarski"
Abstract
Understanding the seasonal dynamics of mosquito populations in temperate urban environments is essential for predicting vector emergence, estimating generational turnover,
and anticipating climate-driven shifts in phenology. This study presents a temperature-driven modelling framework that integrates degree-day accumulation, photoperiod-controlled seasonal activity, and density-dependent population regulation to simulate the seasonal development of Culex pipiens L. and Aedes albopictus (Skuse) under temperate Balkan conditions. The model distinguishes between two biologically meaningful metrics: developmental generations (egg-toadult completion) and realised reproductive generations (egg-to-adult-to-first oviposition), thereby linking phenology to reproductive potential. Seasonal activity is constrained using ecologically defined thresholds of mean daily temperature and daylength, ensuring biologically realistic onset and termination of development. A carrying capacity term is incorporated to prevent unrealistic exponential growth and to approximate density-dependent regulation in urban habitats. Using a typical temperate climatic year, we evaluate baseline seasonal dynamics and explore a +1°C warming scenario to quantify shifts in active season length and generational turnover. Results indicate that modest temperature increases can extend the active window and increase the number of completed generations, particularly when reproductive maturation is considered. The proposed framework provides a transparent and transferable tool for assessing mosquito seasonal dynamics in temperate regions and can be readily extended to incorporate additional environmental drivers where required.
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Keywords
degree-day model, generational turnover, reproductive generation, photoperiod constraint, temperate climate, urban ecology